Let’s Talk About the "Transgender Mass Shooter" Myth (And What the Data Actually Says)

Every time a tragedy involving a firearm hits the news, the internet’s "outrage machine" kicks into high gear. Recently, there’s been a loud, coordinated effort to claim that transgender and non-binary people are suddenly behind a "wave" of mass shootings.

It’s a scary headline. It’s a viral talking point. It’s also completely made up.

If you’ve seen these claims floating around your feed, it’s time to arm yourself with the actual numbers. Because when we look at the data, the "transgender shooter epidemic" doesn't just shrink—it effectively vanishes.

Doing the Math (It’s Pretty Simple)

To see the truth, we have to look at the big picture, not just the two or three cases that pundits have "cherry-picked" to fit a narrative.

Take the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks every mass shooting in the U.S. (defined as 4+ people shot). Since 2013, there have been over 5,700 of these tragedies.

• How many were committed by trans or non-binary people? 5.

• The Math: That is 0.09%.

For context, about 1% to 1.6% of the U.S. population identifies as trans or non-binary. If trans people were "inherently violent," you’d expect them to be responsible for at least 1% of shootings. Instead, they are responsible for less than one-tenth of one percent.

Translation: Transgender people are actually statistically underrepresented in these crimes.

Why Does It Feel Like a Trend?

It feels like a trend because of selective reporting.

When a cisgender man commits a mass shooting (which, statistically, accounts for about 98% of these events), his gender isn't the headline. It’s treated as "the norm." But when a perpetrator identifies as trans, that identity is shouted from the rooftops.

This creates a "glitch" in how our brains process information. We remember the one or two high-profile stories because they’re treated as "unusual," and we ignore the thousands of other cases because they’ve become background noise.

The Reality Check: You can’t take three data points out of five thousand and call it a "pattern." That’s not science; that’s a smear campaign.

The Real Victimhood Gap

While some people are busy trying to paint trans people as "the threat," they’re ignoring who is actually in the crosshairs.

According to the Williams Institute at UCLA, trans people are four times more likely to be victims of violent crime than cisgender people. They aren't the ones pulling the triggers; they’re the ones facing the highest risks of being targeted by hate.

The Bottom Line

Linking gender identity to mass violence isn't about public safety. It’s about distraction.

Every minute we spend arguing about a statistically non-existent "trans violence wave" is a minute we aren't talking about the real issues: easy access to weapons, lack of mental health support, and a culture of toxic masculinity that fuels 98% of these tragedies.

Don't let the noise drown out the numbers. Trans people aren't the problem—hate is.